AGP Executive Report

West Bank Trade Curbs: Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK moved to tighten trade with Israeli settlements, with the UK also announcing a ban on imports of settlement goods and a sanctions regime targeting firms and individuals tied to construction, infrastructure, financing and real estate services. Diplomatic Fallout: Israel retaliated by ordering the closure of the UK’s East Jerusalem consulate and barring 12 Britons, as the dispute escalates between Western allies and Israel. Iran Nuclear Construction Watch: Satellite-image analysis says construction at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain underground site has clearly increased this year, including tunnel and road work, raising concerns about sensitive nuclear-related activity. Energy & Rates Pressure: Brent pushed above $100 a barrel amid US-Iran tensions, while higher Treasury yields weighed on markets—an environment that can quickly feed into regional construction and property financing costs. Saudi Real Estate/Development Signals: Dubai Holding awarded a major new HQ and Jumeirah Residences Emirates Towers deal, underscoring continued Gulf appetite for large-scale projects despite wider geopolitical risk.

Dubai Real Estate & Construction: Dubai Holding awarded its biggest-ever AED5bn ($1.36bn) contract to CSCEC ME for its new headquarters and Jumeirah Residences Emirates Towers, with openings targeted for 2029 and 2030. Affordable Housing (Türkiye): Türkiye is rolling out a social rental scheme via TOKİ, starting with 15,000 units in Istanbul (1,071 in the first phase), with applications opening Sept. 14 and three-year tenancies. Industrial Real Estate (Saudi Arabia): Saudi Arabia’s industrial push is accelerating—JLL data points to rising industrial establishments and strong occupancy, while Qassim Cement secured SAR400m SIDF funding for a new Buraydah production line. Logistics & Land Use (Saudi Arabia/UAE): Al Rajhi Capital and LogiPoint plan a SAR5bn South Jeddah logistics and industrial park (1.9m sqm), and Dubai-based Sumea launched SumeaWorld, a 12,000 sqm trade/distribution hub at Jafza. Regional Property Events (Iraq): Erbil hosted the 7th International Real Estate Investment Exhibition, drawing nearly 300 companies and pushing homebuying deals. Policy Shock (West Bank trade): 12 countries moved to restrict trade tied to Israeli settlements, with UK-led measures also impacting services linked to settlement expansion—raising uncertainty for cross-border real estate and development activity. Energy-linked Construction (Egypt): Egypt broke ground on the Abu Tartour phosphoric acid complex in New Valley, a major chemicals investment tied to mining and industrial supply chains.

West Bank Real Estate & Trade: The UK says it will ban imports of goods from illegal Israeli settlements and restrict services tied to settlement expansion, including construction, infrastructure, financing and real estate marketing—moves framed as targeting “ethnic cleansing” and occupation-linked activity; Diplomatic Retaliation: Israel responded by announcing the closure of the UK consulate in East Jerusalem and countermeasures against UK officials; Settlement Enforcement: Separately, reports say Netanyahu ordered removal of illegal settler outposts in the West Bank, adding uncertainty for land use and development pipelines; Saudi Property Registration: Saudi Arabia’s REGA begins a new phase of real estate registration in Makkah’s Rie Dhakher neighborhood from Sept 13 to Dec 17 via the electronic registry, with penalties for late registration; Gaza Humanitarian Impact on Built Environment: Israeli strikes in Gaza continued despite ceasefire claims, including attacks hitting homes and a school sheltering displaced families—another reminder of how quickly housing and infrastructure plans can be disrupted.

West Bank Settlement Trade Sanctions: The UK is set to ban imports of goods from Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, with services tied to settlement expansion (construction, financing, real estate, infrastructure and advertising) also targeted; the measures are expected to take effect in 6–9 months and are being coordinated with France and Canada, while the US warns of possible retaliation affecting British firms. E1 Housing Fallout: The policy shift is linked to renewed scrutiny of the E1 area plan, where Israel has published tenders for 1,200 housing units that could disrupt territorial contiguity for a future Palestinian state. Legal Roadblock: An Israeli court rejected petitions seeking to halt the E1 settlement development, arguing safeguards and legal review remain in place before irreversible changes. GCC Real Estate Dealmaking: Savills strengthens its GCC residential investment push by appointing Greg Stockton in Dubai to expand UK residential sales and distribution across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman. Kurdistan Housing & Infrastructure: Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government says it has completed 480 projects and is preparing a new 10-year plan focused on roads, infrastructure and housing, including work on the Shorsh Bridge. Energy-Driven Construction Demand: Market reports point to continued construction materials momentum, including steel rebar growth forecasts, underpinned by infrastructure and urban development spending.

Gaza Reconstruction & Land Use: UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese warned that large-scale rubble removal in Gaza could erase evidence tied to alleged “atrocity crimes,” with Palestinian estimates of more than 10,000 people still buried under debris. Urban Governance: In Baghdad, Iraq’s first deputy speaker urged the municipality to pause demolition or removal of homes built on agricultural land, calling for updated master plans and legal action against illegal subdivision while offering housing alternatives. Energy & Shipping Costs: With Middle East conflict disrupting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, crude and LNG shipping costs are rising; Taiwan approved a large supplementary budget to cushion higher energy prices. Real Estate Development Pipeline: Saudi Arabia’s Garuda Construction unit signed an MoU for a 93-storey twisting tower in Jeddah, targeting about five years to build. Housing & Affordability Outlook: CBRE said commercial real estate investment across Asia Pacific may become more selective in H2 2026 as higher rates and geopolitics reshape investor priorities. Construction Progress: Afghanistan’s “New Kabul” project hit 30% on the second parcel of phase one, with land-ownership verification still a key hurdle.

Saudi Real Estate & Tourism: PIF launched Gulf Coast Development Company to build a 20 sq km integrated tourism and residential destination in Al-Khafji, with 16,000+ homes, ~1,400 hotel rooms, marinas and schools, in three phases (first phase due by 2030). Gaza Reconstruction & Housing Materials: A UN expert warned that large-scale rubble removal in Israeli-controlled Gaza could erase traces tied to alleged atrocity crimes, complicating recovery and identification of human remains. Iraq Land & Permits: Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court upheld Nineveh Provincial Council’s move to lift construction restrictions in Qaza Fakhra and Jliyokhan on the Nineveh Plains, clearing the way for plot subdivision and building permits. Middle East Energy Costs Spill Into Property: US diesel hit a record $5.90/gal amid Iran-war refinery disruptions, a reminder that fuel shocks can feed into construction and housing affordability across the region. Turkey Housing Supply: Türkiye’s cabinet agenda included plans for 15,000 rental homes in Istanbul under a wider 500,000-home social housing push.

West Bank Settlement Build-Out: Israel approved expansion of a Jewish school for settlers in Hebron and ordered the evacuation/dismantling of some unauthorized settler outposts, as the U.S. presses for action against settler violence—another reminder that planning approvals and enforcement can shift fast on the ground. Housing & Land Rights: A separate legal dispute highlights how land and property claims can resurface long after deals are signed, with Iraq’s Jewish community suing France over a Baghdad embassy building used for decades without payment. Energy-Driven Construction Pipeline: Egypt and China reaffirmed deeper energy cooperation as Egypt accelerates renewables targets, while Pakistan’s Balakot hydropower project advances toward major output—both signals of infrastructure demand that can spill into construction and real estate supply chains. AI Infrastructure Bottleneck: “Stargate Korea” remains stalled as OpenAI, Samsung and SK have not locked sites, power or funding, underscoring how power, land and cooling constraints can delay data-center real estate. UAE Events & Venues: ADNEC Group (Modon) flagged 297 events across Abu Dhabi and Al Ain in H2 2026, supporting demand for hospitality, commercial leasing and related development.

Riyadh Residential Launch: First Projects Ltd. is partnering with Hyatt to introduce Hyatt Regency Private Residences Riyadh Downtown in Al Olaya, adding hotel-style amenities and a new branded living option in the capital. UAE Earnings Signal Demand: UAE listed firms’ Q2 profits jumped 28.6% to Dh79.2bn, with banking and real estate strength supporting the region’s property-linked sentiment. Saudi Real Assets Push: A market note says global asset owners are tilting toward real estate, infrastructure and private credit, while sovereign funds adapt mandates to back budgets and supply chains. Saudi Renewable Utilities Milestone: Acwa’s Red Sea utility systems hit full commercial operation using renewable power only, with water, wastewater, district cooling and waste services now running under a long concession. Turkey Nuclear Progress: Turkey says the first reactor at Akkuyu is in intensive testing and will go online soon, a major energy infrastructure step that can shape future construction and power demand planning. Palestinian Industry Pressure: Reports highlight mounting strain on the West Bank stone and marble sector from movement limits, energy costs and trade frictions between Gaza and the West Bank. Urban Planning Governance: Kuwait is taking part in Arab Towns Organization meetings in Oman focused on innovative, sustainable city development, including planning, transport, water and waste management.

West Bank Security & Property Risk: US Ambassador Mike Huckabee again called Israeli settler violence in the occupied West Bank an “act of terror,” raising pressure on Israel to curb attacks that disrupt daily life and local stability. Iraq Housing & Land Delivery: Iraq’s Watan (Homeland) Initiative is moving ahead, with Basra and Karbala reporting 195,000 residential plots prepared for distribution and registration opening in October. Iraq Construction Oversight: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission arrested five staff over alleged violations in the renovation of Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in Al-Muthanna, citing cost discrepancies, delays, and stalled installations. Kurdistan Road Build: The KRG said the Korre-Shaqlawa-Qandil road is 70% complete, with a planned October opening and major upgrades including tunnels and a truck speed-control ramp. Egypt Affordable Housing Launch: Egypt will open applications for 25,000 rental and rent-to-own units on 20 September, including 15,000 low-income rentals and 10,000 NUCA rent-to-own homes across multiple new cities. Kuwait Public Finance: Kuwait approved regulated borrowing from the Future Generations Fund to fund deficits and development while trying to protect the fund’s long-term solvency.

West Bank Land & Housing Pressure: Israel’s settlement push is intensifying, with reports of new outposts and land seizures spreading beyond Area C into Areas A and B, alongside road building and movement restrictions that threaten West Bank contiguity. Northern Jordan Valley Outpost: Settlers began erecting temporary buildings for a new agricultural/pastoral outpost (“Beitron”) aimed at expanding control over grazing land and isolating Bedouin communities. West Bank Raids: Israeli forces carried out a wide-scale West Bank raid campaign, arresting five Palestinians across Jenin and Bethlehem areas, including arrests tied to family members. Iraq Housing Push: Iraq will open online registration in October for the Watan (Home) initiative, offering one million free residential land plots with infrastructure; 216,000 plots are already prepared across 15 provinces. Iraq Anti-Corruption & Assets: Iraqi authorities arrested the head of training at the Baiji Oil Institute in a corruption probe, following major asset seizures tied to the broader “Dawn Crackdown.” Cairo Heritage Revamp: Egypt’s Sisi reviewed restoration of historic Islamic landmarks in Cairo, with plans to connect sites via pedestrian and tourism routes to boost access and visitor flows. GCC Real Estate Finance Mood: GCC listed companies reported record Q2 profit growth, with real estate among sectors benefiting as oil prices supported earnings. Saudi Construction/Power Outlook: EPC revenue growth is projected at 9–10% this fiscal, driven by power-sector investment and transmission upgrades. Energy Cost Shock for Construction: Diesel hit a new US all-time high, raising transport and construction operating costs amid Iran-war disruptions. Israel-E1 Political Risk: US Democratic senators urged Israel to halt E1 area construction, warning it could jeopardize prospects for a two-state deal.

UAE Markets: Dubai Financial Market rose 0.7% and Abu Dhabi added 0.5%, lifting combined market cap by about Dh14bn, with real estate among the key gainers. Mortgage Pressure: US 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed to 6.71% (Freddie Mac), the highest in 13 months, likely tightening buyer budgets across the region’s expat and investor-linked housing demand. Syria Tourism & Hotels: Damascus hotels are seeing a modest rebound as business travel returns; one report cites occupancy around 50–70% for major properties, hinting at early recovery in hospitality-linked real estate. Iraq School Build Delays: Karbala says it needs 350 new schools as budget delays stall projects and leave contractors owed about 300bn Iraqi dinars, adding pressure on land and construction pipelines. Construction Outlook (UK): UK construction PMI slipped to 44.3 in August, with residential starts weakening and firms cutting headcount—another sign of cautious demand for housing projects. Regional Risk (Iran): Trump warned the US could “hit” Iran’s underground nuclear site Pickaxe Mountain “very soon,” a reminder that Middle East tensions can quickly spill into energy costs and financing conditions. Saudi Labor Crackdown: Saudi Arabia deported tens of thousands in a fresh enforcement week, reinforcing how workforce rules can affect construction labor availability and project schedules.

Dubai Housing Rules: Dubai Land Department launched “Initial Registration,” aiming to streamline developer workflows and improve the real estate journey for buyers and operators. Tenant Protection: A new shared housing law in Dubai is set to reshape how tenants, landlords and operators handle co-living arrangements. Iraq Urban Growth: Iraq plans new cities across provinces and is also pushing a large residential plot drive, with 1M housing plots opening for applications in October. Gaza Displacement Politics: Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir unveiled “Disengagement 710,” proposing the relocation of about 1.86M Palestinians from Gaza over seven years, with housing and visa “absorption packages” at the core. Construction & Cost Pressure: Saudi Arabia introduced a 90-day deadline for expat work permits and tightened construction dust enforcement with fines up to SR20m, adding compliance costs for contractors. Energy-Driven Development: Turkmenistan reiterated TAPI’s role in supplying a region of ~2 billion people, while Morocco moved ahead with an EIB-backed feasibility study for its first offshore windfarm near Essaouira.

Shared Housing Regulation (Dubai): Dubai’s new shared housing law cracks down on unpermitted “bed-space” subletting, bringing shared accommodation under permit rules, occupancy limits and safety standards, with inspections already underway and penalties pushing landlords and operators to regularize before the 2027 deadline. Mortgage Pressure (GCC & beyond): Mortgage rates in the wider market jumped to a 2026 high of 6.71%, driven by a bond sell-off tied to inflation worries and the Iran conflict—raising borrowing costs for homebuyers and refinance plans. Energy & Logistics (Egypt–China): China–Egypt port ties are deepening as Guangzhou Port expands liner routes with Alexandria and Port Said, boosting container volumes and adding cooperation on smart, green port upgrades and training. Regional Trade & Sanctions (Iraq–Iran): A report highlights Iraq’s role in Iran-linked dollar flows and trade networks as US pressure intensifies, with Baghdad facing deadlines to bring Iran-backed armed groups under state control. Industrial Real Estate (RAKEZ, UAE): JK Cement inaugurated a new construction-chemicals plant in Ras Al Khaimah Economic Zone, aiming to scale supply for the UAE and export markets across the GCC, Africa and beyond. Land & Planning (West Bank): Amnesty warns of accelerated Israeli land confiscation orders in the West Bank, flagging new annexation-linked measures that could reshape development and access.

GCC Investment Pulse: BlackRock says a $2.1tn Gulf spending boom could keep more capital inside the region, reshaping global flows as defense, energy and AI budgets converge. UAE Economic Momentum: UAE non-oil PMI rose to 55.3 in August, the fastest since Dec 2024, pointing to stronger new work and output—good news for construction and property-linked demand. Turkey Inflation Watch: Turkey’s annual inflation eased to 31.51% in August, with housing-related costs up 2.26% month-on-month—still a reminder that affordability pressure won’t vanish overnight. Middle East Risk Premium: Renewed US-Iran strikes and tanker tensions are again raising the stakes for Gulf shipping and regional corridors, with knock-on effects for logistics and development timelines. Syria Reconstruction vs Security: Türkiye reiterated support for Syria’s security and institutional capacity, while joint infrastructure work like a floating Euphrates bridge underscores how rebuilding is tied to stability. Real Estate Narrative: A Jordanian novel spotlights heritage neighborhoods under pressure from real estate schemes, echoing the region’s ongoing fight over old districts and new concrete.

Middle East Housing & Urban Development: The EU warned that Israel’s E1 settlement project will further undermine the two-state solution, after Israel issued a tender for 1,234 housing units as part of a wider plan for 3,401 homes in the E1 area east of Jerusalem. Water & Sanitation Infrastructure: Cameroon’s Red Cross and Türkiye’s Red Crescent signed a partnership to improve access to drinking water, hygiene and sanitation for vulnerable communities, including wells and water treatment facilities. Nuclear & Site Monitoring: The UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) confirmed Syria tried to build a nuclear reactor in Deir Az Zor under Assad, saying uncovered cooling infrastructure matches a reactor design and that former authorities failed to report nuclear material and activities. GCC Investment & Real Estate Finance: Austria and Saudi Arabia agreed a digital cooperation push under Vision 2030, including an AI pilot and a business-to-government matchmaking mechanism to connect Austrian firms with Saudi public contracting. Construction & Logistics: Iraq’s housing drive is opening 1M residential plots for applications in October, while separate coverage points to ongoing strategic pipeline and industrial expansion plans.

West Asia Security Shock: Iran’s IRGC claimed missile/drone strikes on US bases across Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq and the UAE after a wedding attack in Sirik, while markets reacted to renewed escalation. Israel Housing & Planning: Israel issued tenders for 1,234 homes in E1, the Jerusalem–Ma’ale Adumim corridor, keeping the long-running settlement expansion plan in focus. Syria Nuclear Fallout: The IAEA said it found infrastructure “consistent with a nuclear reactor” at a Syrian site and reported undeclared uranium material, adding uncertainty for reconstruction and investment. Urban Development & Investment: Abu Dhabi announced LIVEX 2026, a city livability and investment exhibition aimed at attracting capital into future-ready communities. Cross-border Real Estate Marketing: Davidson Real Estate hit 100,000 Instagram followers, signaling how Israeli luxury property is reaching global buyers via digital storytelling. Financing & Demand Signals: Cyprus banks reported stable housing-loan standards and expected household borrowing to rise, despite Middle East crisis uncertainty. Infrastructure & Capacity: Istanbul Airport’s 4th runway nears operations, boosting capacity after record flight and passenger days. Project Logistics: AsstrA backed a major Türkiye polypropylene complex with marine terminal logistics, underlining construction-linked supply-chain demand.